The situation in Manipur, a northeastern state in India, is intricately connected to the ongoing instability in Myanmar, especially following the military coup in 2021. This connection has several dimensions, impacting both internal security within Manipur and the broader geopolitics of the region.
Impact of Myanmar’s Instability on Manipur
1. Refugee Influx: The military coup in Myanmar has led to a significant influx of refugees into Manipur. Many of these refugees are from the Kuki-Chin ethnic group, which shares kinship ties with tribes in Manipur. The influx of refugees has complicated the ethnic balance in Manipur, further fueling existing tensions .
2. Drug Trafficking and Cross-Border Crime: Manipur’s proximity to the Golden Triangle, a region notorious for drug trafficking, makes it vulnerable to such illegal activities. The cross-border criminal activities, fueled by drug cartels and insurgent groups with networks extending into Myanmar, have led to an increase in violence and social unrest in the region .
3. Availability of Firearms: The proliferation of firearms among warring groups in Manipur is another significant issue. The Eastern Army Commander, Lt General Rana Pratap Kalita, raised concerns about the large number of weapons available with both the Meitei and Kuki communities in Manipur. This situation is exacerbated by the instability across the border in Myanmar, leading to further complications in the region .
Internal Factors Contributing to Unrest in Manipur
1. Demand for Scheduled Tribe Status: The demand by the Meitei community for Scheduled Tribe status has led to protests and increased tension, particularly with tribal groups who fear losing reservation benefits .
2. Land and Resource Competition: The competition for land and resources, especially between the Meiteis in the Imphal Valley and the hill tribes, has intensified tensions. This is coupled with historic tensions and a struggle for political representation and cultural recognition .
3. Economic and Governance Issues: Economic underdevelopment and governance issues, including the application of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) and internet suspension, have aggravated the situation in Manipur, failing to address the root causes of unrest .
Geopolitical and Regional Security Implications
1. Border Vulnerability: The unrest in Manipur could lead to increased vulnerability of borders, with heightened risks of smuggling, drug trafficking, and illegal arms trading. This could further affect overall regional security .
2. Strained International Relations: The situation in Manipur could impact India’s relations with neighboring countries, especially Myanmar. The refugee crisis and cross-border crimes can strain diplomatic efforts and hinder cooperation in the region .
3. Impact on India’s Act East Policy: The unrest could challenge India’s Act East Policy, which aims to strengthen economic and strategic ties with Southeast Asian countries. Ensuring peace and stability in the Northeast region is essential for the success of this policy .
The situation in Manipur, thus, reflects a complex interplay of internal ethnic dynamics, cross-border influences from Myanmar, and broader geopolitical concerns. The Indian government’s response, involving both security measures and development initiatives, aims to address these multifaceted challenges.
