MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AND ITS IMPACT ON INDIA’S MONSOON
Introduction to Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a moving pattern of unusual rainfall near the equator. It moves eastward, causing changes in rainfall over large areas. This pattern, which lasts between 30-60 days, significantly affects global weather, including monsoons and tropical storms.
Behavior of the MJO
The MJO is a key factor in tropical weather changes. It involves large patterns in atmospheric circulation and heavy rain, moving slowly east through the Indian and Pacific Oceans, where the sea surface is warm. This interaction influences many weather systems.
Discovery and Observation
First identified by Madden and Julian in the early 1970s, the MJO has been a focus for scientists. It involves patterns of increased and decreased rainfall, with atmospheric changes that extend globally.
Mechanism of MJO
The MJO travels eastward across the tropics at about 11 mph, taking 30-60 days to complete its cycle. It is tracked by measuring outgoing long-wave radiation with weather satellites. Changes in surface and upper-level winds occur, linked to the active and less active phases of rainfall.
Local Effects and Connection to Monsoon
The MJO greatly affects the Indian summer monsoon. Warming sea surface temperatures are seen five to ten days before MJO-related rain increases in southern Asia. A typical break in the monsoon, usually in July, is often due to the MJO moving east into the tropical Pacific.
New Forecasting Features
India Meteorological Department (IMD) includes MJO data in its forecasts. Farmers receive updates on active and break phases of the monsoon 10-15 days in advance, helping them plan better.
Influence on Tropical Cyclogenesis
The MJO affects tropical storm activity by creating favorable conditions for their development. Its eastward movement shifts the region favorable for tropical storms from the western Pacific to the Atlantic.
Inverse Relationship
There is often an inverse relationship between tropical storm activity in the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic. When one area is active, the other is usually quiet, mainly due to the MJO’s different phases.
Conclusion
The Madden Julian Oscillation is crucial for understanding global weather, especially the Indian monsoon and tropical storms. The IMD’s new MJO-based forecasting will improve weather predictions, benefiting farmers and others in India.
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