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India's Relations with Central Asian Republics: A Critical Analysis



  Oct 03, 2024

India and Central Asian Republics (C.A.R.s)


India and Central Asian Republics (C.A.R.s)

India’s evolving diplomatic, economic, and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (C.A.R.s) have grown significantly in importance, particularly given their strategic location, rich natural resources, and potential as regional partners in trade and security. Here is a detailed critical analysis, including facts and figures, to illustrate the multifaceted relationship between India and the C.A.R.s:

Diplomatic Relations

India has been actively engaging with Central Asian countries since their independence following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The diplomatic ties have been strengthened by the establishment of consulates, frequent high-level governmental visits, and the signing of numerous bilateral agreements that span a range of sectors. For instance, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit in 2015 marked the first by an Indian PM to all five Republics, underscoring the region’s importance to India’s foreign policy.

Economic Engagement

Despite the geographical and logistical challenges, India has made substantial economic inroads into the region:

Trade Volume: Trade between India and the Central Asian countries stands modest but has potential for growth. As per the Ministry of External Affairs, the total trade turnover between India and Central Asia was approximately $2 billion in 2019, which is far below the potential, considering the region's resource richness and India's market size.

Key Projects: India has been a part of several pivotal projects aimed at improving connectivity and trade. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a notable initiative, aimed at reducing the carriage costs between India and Russia by about 30%, and transit time from 40 days to about 20 days. Additionally, India's investment in Iran's Chabahar Port serves as a strategic point to gain trade access not only to Iran but also to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Energy Imports: Kazakhstan, one of the major partners, has supplied India with about 5,000 metric tonnes of uranium since the signing of a long-term contract in 2009. This supports India's growing nuclear energy needs.

Strategic and Security Cooperation

Military and Defence: India has established military ties, including agreements on military training and counterterrorism. India’s Farkhor Air Base in Tajikistan is a strategic asset, offering India leverage in a region dominated by Chinese and Russian influence.

Joint Exercises and Agreements: India conducts regular military exercises and has signed numerous defence cooperation agreements with Central Asian countries. These agreements include cooperation in military education and training, disaster response, and intelligence sharing.

Challenges

Geopolitical Competition: The region is a significant part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has seen China investing billions into infrastructure and mining. Russia also maintains a strong influence through economic and security frameworks such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Connectivity and Accessibility: The lack of direct land connectivity is a significant barrier. Dependency on potentially volatile transit routes through Iran or Pakistan adds to the complexity of trade and economic engagement.

Economic Constraints: Central Asian economies, while rich in resources, have relatively small markets with limited industrial diversification. This poses a challenge for expanding the trade basket which is currently dominated by commodities.

Opportunities

Resource Access: Central Asia is rich in minerals and hydrocarbons. Countries like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are among the top natural gas reserves holders globally, which can significantly aid India's energy security.

Strategic Depth: With the ongoing instability in Afghanistan, Central Asia's stability is crucial for regional security. Strengthening ties with these nations helps India secure its interests against extremism and terrorism.

Soft Power and Cultural Leverage: India can leverage its cultural ties, including shared historical and linguistic links through the Silk Route, to enhance soft power in the region. This includes cooperation in education, technology transfer, healthcare, and IT.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the challenges are significant, the strategic imperatives of deepening ties with Central Asia are clear. India needs to continue leveraging diplomatic channels, improve connectivity infrastructure, and increase economic engagement through targeted investments and trade facilitation measures. These steps will not only help in harnessing the economic potential but also in achieving strategic stability and securing energy needs, making this relationship a cornerstone of India's extended neighborhood policy.


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