The whole of the fiscal year 2022-23 Indian rupee was under pressure as the Fed rates were going up to deal with the US inflation and foreign currency was leaving India in search of yield-yielding US dollar. RBI used up much forex defending the rupee. India is not alone. Most developing countries went into a sovereign debt crisis-Sri Lanka and Pakistan in our neighbourhood.
The link between Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates and potential debt crises in developing countries is an interconnected phenomenon that can have far-reaching economic implications. The relationship between these two factors highlights the vulnerabilities and challenges that developing nations face in the global financial landscape.
Borrowing in Foreign Currency: Many developing countries rely on borrowing in foreign currencies, particularly U.S. dollars, to finance their development projects and sustain economic growth. This is often driven by the availability of lower interest rates in advanced economies. When the Fed raises its interest rates, it leads to an increase in global interest rates, making dollar-denominated debt more expensive to service for these countries.
Exchange Rate Depreciation: A higher Fed funds rate can attract foreign capital to the United States, strengthening the U.S. dollar. This, in turn, can lead to depreciation of the currencies of developing countries against the dollar. As their local currencies weaken, the cost of repaying dollar-denominated debt increases, potentially straining government finances and corporate balance sheets.
Debt Servicing Costs: Developing countries with significant dollar-denominated debt are exposed to higher debt servicing costs as interest rates rise. The increase in borrowing costs can divert resources that could otherwise be invested in critical sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure development. Governments may find it challenging to meet their debt obligations, leading to debt distress and potential default.
Market Sentiment and Investor Confidence: Changes in Fed rates can impact global market sentiment and investor confidence, affecting capital flows to developing countries. In times of rising U.S. interest rates, investors may choose to withdraw funds from emerging markets in search of higher yields in the U.S. This sudden outflow of capital can destabilize financial markets and lead to currency depreciation and higher borrowing costs in developing nations.
Economic Slowdown and Fiscal Pressures: Higher interest rates can lead to an economic slowdown in developing countries, reducing tax revenues and increasing fiscal pressures. A combination of lower economic growth and higher debt servicing costs can create a challenging environment for governments to manage their budgets effectively.
Limited Policy Flexibility: Developing countries may have limited policy flexibility to respond effectively to changes in global interest rates. Some countries might resort to tightening monetary policies to defend their currencies or attract capital inflows. However, such measures can also dampen domestic economic activity, affecting growth prospects and exacerbating debt-related challenges.
Impact on Sustainable Development: The link between Fed rates and debt crises in developing countries can hinder progress toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Limited resources available for investment in sustainable development initiatives, climate change mitigation, and poverty reduction can hinder the long-term socio-economic progress of these nations.
In summary, the link between Fed interest rates and potential debt crises underscores the need for developing countries to adopt prudent debt management strategies, enhance policy resilience, diversify funding sources, and promote sustainable economic growth. International cooperation, including reforms in the global financial architecture, can play a crucial role in addressing the challenges posed by the interplay between Fed rates and developing country debt vulnerabilities.
