• El Nino Impact: The ongoing El Nino weather phenomenon is causing a stronger impact on the southwest monsoon in India, resulting in a substantial deficiency in rainfall during the first half of August. This stands in contrast to the 6% monsoon surplus observed by the end of July.
• Dry Spell and Deficit: The Indian Meteorological Department noted an unusual 11-day dry spell in the core areas of central India, contributing to a 6% deficit in nationwide rainfall. This dry spell is projected to persist for an additional 3-4 days.
• El Nino's Role: El Nino events are marked by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, leading to weaker monsoons in India.
• Historical Context: Experts highlight that prolonged dry spells are rare, with the current 11-day monsoon break being one of the longest recorded. The previous record was set in 1972, with the second-longest in 2002.
• Monsoon Forecast: The Indian Meteorological Department anticipates continued weaker rainfall across India for the next few days, except in central and eastern regions, where rainfall activity is expected to resume around August 17.
• Global Impact: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts that the El Nino impact will likely affect the southern hemisphere from September to November this year.
