Introduction
Inflation Pressures: The Indian government is grappling with a significant inflationary challenge, as reflected by the 15-month high of 7.44% in July. As a response, it has implemented measures to curb inflation, including discouraging onion exports with a 40% duty and banning exports of certain key food items.
The Underlying Problem
Climate Change Impacts: Adverse weather patterns, including unexpected rains, prolonged droughts, and flooding, contribute to escalating food inflation worldwide.
India's Dry Spell: India is currently experiencing its driest August in over a century. This phenomenon is partly due to the El Nino effect, characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which disrupts typical monsoon patterns, resulting in reduced rainfall over India. This unfavorable weather is anticipated to reduce yields of Kharif crops significantly.
Global Food Security and India's Role
India's Dominance in Exports: As a leading rice exporter, with exports worth $11 billion to more than 150 countries in 2022-23, India plays a pivotal role in global food security. However, the country's decision to ban non-basmati rice exports has been met with criticism, especially as it exacerbates an already fragile food security situation, which has been worsened by the Ukraine war affecting wheat supplies.
World Bank Warning: Global food security concerns are heightened by a World Bank report, which highlighted that acute food insecurity affected 345 million individuals in 82 countries as of June 2022, marking a sharp increase of 155% since 2019.
India's Delicate Balancing Act: India, being a major agricultural trade player, occupies a strategic position in the global arena. Historically, India has occasionally banned exports of essential food items to stabilize domestic prices. However, given the growing challenges posed by climate change and the increasing urgency of food security issues, unilateral export bans may become counterproductive and could lead to international backlash.
Conclusion
As climate change intensifies, its impact on food security, especially in countries like India, becomes increasingly profound. With its significant role in the global food trade, India must strategically navigate these challenges, ensuring both domestic stability and fulfilling its international responsibilities.
