Yemen Conflict

How did the civil war in Yemen begin?

Arab Spring uprising in 2011 forced Yemen’s longtime authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh to hand over power to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

Hadi had too many problems to contend with. The Houthi movement, which champions Yemen's Zaidi Shia Muslim minority and fought a series of rebellions against Saleh during the previous decade, took advantage of the new president's weakness by taking control of their northern heartland of Saada province and neighbouring areas.

Houthis in early 2015 took over Sanaa and later forced Mr Hadi to flee.

Why did Saudi Arabia intervene? Who supports the Saudi coalition?

Alarmed by the rise of a group they believed to be backed militarily by regional Shia power Iran, Saudi Arabia and eight other mostly Sunni Arab states began an air campaign aimed at restoring Mr Hadi's government.

The coalition received logistical and intelligence support from the US, UK and France.

How did Yemen come to see the worst humanitarian disaster?

Saudi coalition has led a blockade of Yemen, denying the country critical supplies and leading to a famine and a humanitarian crisis that, as of 2019, is described as the worst in the world. Thousands of Yemeni civilians have been killed during the conflict. 

When and where did the Houthi attack on Aramco refineries take place? 

On 14 September 2019, a drone attack was carried out targeting the state-owned Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia. The Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility, tying it to events surrounding the Saudi Arabian intervention in the Yemeni Civil War. 

What do Saudi Arabia and US say about who is behind the attack?

However, Saudi Arabian officials claim that drones and missiles were used for the attack and that they were of Iranian manufacture. United States officials assert the attacks originated in Iran. Iran has denied any involvement in the attack. 

What has been the strategic impact? 

• The attacks raised concern over political stability in the Middle East, coupled with the US' stance that the attacks may have originated from Iran. The United States is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, while its relationship with Iran has been deeply strained.
• It has worsened the Persian Gulf crisis. Persian Gulf crisis is an escalation of military tensions between Iran and the United States following the deployment of substantial military assets to the Persian Gulf by President Donald Trump due to alleged intelligence suggesting a planned "campaign" by Iran and allies against US forces and interests in the Persian Gulf and Iraq. This followed a rise in political tensions between the two countries which included the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal, the imposition of new sanctions against Iran, and the American unprecedented designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. In response, Iran designated United States Central Command (CENTCOM) as terrorist organisation. The CENTCOM Area of Responsibility includes the Middle East.
• If it continues, India’s energy security; the 7 million Indian diaspora in west asia; our trade; and the security in the extended neighbourhood are at stake.

What happened to oil processing facilities?

Both facilities were shut down to effect repairs, cutting Saudi Arabia's oil production by about half – representing about 5% of global oil production – and causing some destabilization of global financial and commodities markets. 

How big an oil player is Saudi Arabia?

The proven oil reserves in Saudi Arabia are the second largest in the world second only to Venezuela. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter. Saudi Aramco is a national oil company owned by the Saudi Arabian government; it is the second largest oil producer in the world, behind Russia's Rosneft.

How is India impacted due to the steep rise in global crude prices?

Global crude prices soared almost 20% - the highest single day rise since the Iraq crisis in 1991.

If high oil prices persist, is likely to hurt India’s economic growth. Saudi is our second-biggest oil supplier after Iraq. It sold 40 million tonnes of crude oil to India in 2018-19 fiscal, when the country had imported 207 million tonnes of oil.

How bad can it become?

• A $10 rise in crude price will worsen India’s annual import bill by $15 billion; 
• and a 10 per cent rise in oil prices widens India’s current account deficit by 0.4-0.5 per cent of GDP as imports will cost more
• It may further get aggravated as the rupee will weaken due to the higher demand for dollar
• Inflation will accelerate
• Interest rates will rise
• Demand will fall
• Fiscal deficit will increase as there will be a need to subsidise fuel whose price rise is the beginning of the whole fall
• government’s ability to spend on social sector schemes will suffer
• And thus will weaken the Indian economy which is already facing a slowdown

What is India’s response in terms of preparation against such drone attacks?

Following a major drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil installations last week, Indian defence forces and the private sector are taking stock of counter-drone preparedness.

Private companies, especially oil refiners, and key government bodies like the Airports Authority of India (AAI) are reviewing preparedness.

India has a number of large oil refining assets close to India-Pakistan border. These include Reliance’s mega oil plant at Jamnagar, HPCL-Mittal’s refinery in Bhatinda, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar facility, and Indian Oil’s Panipat, Mathura and Koyali. The physical security at these sites is being managed by the Central Industrial Security Force.

What does the Counter-drone technology comprise of?

Counter-drone technology comprises two parts — detection and neutralisation.

A drone can be detected using traditional radar systems, or radio frequency-based solutions. However, drones flying too low or too fast, or if they are too small, may go undetected. This raises requirement for specialised radar systems.

To neutralise them, the most prevalent solution is a jammer. However, jammers may not work with autonomous drones, which are pre-programmed for a specific target location.

In such cases, the counter measure is Global Positioning System (GPS) spoofing, which maliciously infects the GPS on a drone, causing it to lose sight of the target.