What are the determinants of economic growth? What are the areas of co...

  Apr 08, 2017

What are the determinants of economic growth? What are the areas of concern for India in this regard? What can be done given the current situation of growth in India?

It is time for policymakers to turn their attention to the major task of accelerating economic growth. As of now the prospects are not encouraging. The decline in the growth rate is not a recent phenomenon. It started in 2011-12. The persistence of relatively low growth over a five-year period calls for a critical examination. Even though the new numbers on national income give us some comfort, they do not tell the whole story.

Determinants of growth
The growth rate is determined by two factors — Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR)
As the Harrod-Domar equation puts it, the growth rate is equal to the investment rate divided by the incremental capital-output ratio. The incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) is the amount of capital required to produce one unit of output. The higher the ICOR, the less efficient we are in the use of capital. There are many caveats to this bald proposition. As we look at the Indian performance in the last five years, two facts stand out. One is a decline in the investment rate and the second is a rise in ICOR; both of which can only lead to a lower growth rate.

As growth was coming down sharply initially, the investment rate was falling only slowly, implying a rising ICOR. ICOR is a catch-all expression which is determined by a variety of factors including technology, skill of manpower, managerial competence and also macroeconomic policies.
Thus factors that can all lead to a rise in ICOR are: Stalled Projects
The Economic Survey of 2014-15 reported that there were in all 746 stalled projects, with 161 in the public sector and 585 in the private sector of a total value of ₹8.8 lakh crore. As of 2015-16, there were still 404 stalled projects, 162 in the public sector and 242 in the private sector with a total value of ₹5.5 lakh crore. In the short run, the biggest gain in terms of growth will be by getting “stalled projects” moving. Of course some of them may be unviable because of changed conditions. A periodic reporting by the government on the progress of stalled projects will be of great help.

Declining investment rate Policy paralysis
The major issue confronting us is: why did the investment rate fall? Why are not new investments forthcoming? In 2011 and 2012, in discussions on the Indian economy, the one phrase that used to be bandied about was “policy paralysis”, pointing to the inability of the government to take policy decisions because of “coalition compulsions”. It is true that around this period, the government was preoccupied with answering many issues connected with graft. But that does not explain the steady fall in the investment rate except for a sense of uncertainty created in the minds of investors.

Global Scenario
The external environment was also not encouraging. The growth rate of the advanced economies remained low and the recovery from the crisis of 2008 was tepid which had an adverse impact on exports. However, India benefited by large capital inflows except in 2013. For almost three years beginning 2010, India had to cope with a high level of inflation which also had an adverse impact on investment sentiment. Once the growth rate starts to decline, it sets in motion a vicious cycle of decline in investment and lower growth. The acceleration principle begins to operate. We need to break this chain in order to move on to a higher growth path.

Solutions Three things need attention. Long-term lending
This is also the appropriate time to revive an idea which had withered away during the reform process and that is to have institutions focussed on long-term lending such as IDBI and ICICI as they were before 1998. The details can be worked out. But the idea needs a rethink.

Investment, as they say, is an act of faith in the future. If there has to be investment resurgence, it is necessary to create the climate which promotes this faith. We have already outlined the actions that can be taken in the purely economic arena. But “animal spirits” are also influenced by what happens in the polity and society. Avoidance of divisive issues is paramount in this context. Undiluted attention to development is the need of the hour.